Interest in national and homeland
security is cyclical. Nobody pays much attention to security until there is a
big event, and then everybody wants to know why nobody was paying attention.
Well, pay attention now, because an even bigger event than Paris or Mali (or the
hotels in Mumbai, or the ballet in Moscow, or the schools in Beslan, Chibok, or
Peshawar) is coming.
-- In
ISIS, we have an enemy who hates us because we exist. There may be opponents
who hate our freedoms, or values, or policies overseas, or who are motivated by
poverty and oppression. They may be assuaged by engagement and soft power. But
we also have enemies who see our existence as an affront to their god. They are
growing.
-- They
are enabled by global communications, transportation, distribution of
scientific expertise, and the computer revolution. Soon they will be enabled by
the biological revolution.
-- Eventually
they will acquire the chemical, radiological, nuclear and biological weapons of
mass destruction experts have been warning about for two decades.
-- When
they get such weapons, they will use them. They must. Failure to do so would
delegitimize their leaders now attracting volunteers by promising to destroy
the West.
--We
are unprepared for such attacks. We have some domestic forces dedicated to WMD
response – a few hundred National Guard troops here, and a few thousand active
duty troops there. But we are unprepared legally, bureaucratically,
scientifically, and psychologically for an attack that kills tens of thousands
and destroys the ability of the government to govern.
This is the “Austin or Boston” threat.
The entire structure of emergency response
in the US is built upon the principle of local leadership. Mayors and county
officials make key decisions and use their resources until exhausted. Then
governors and state officials supply resources and guidance. When that fails,
the federal government steps in with resources, but the locals remain in
charge. At no point do the feds take over
from the locals.
Responding to a major WMD attack would
require massive resources, lots of practice, and if an entire state government
were destroyed (as with a nuclear weapon in Austin or Boston), some mechanism
to control the response and restore the state and local government. We do not
have such mechanisms today. We have not even thought seriously about establishing
them.
We
need to do that right now while everyone is paying attention. And before our opponents gain the weapons
they seek, and use them in the ways they promise.
