Weekly Radio Topics

Each Wednesday I get 20 minutes (5:05-5:25 pm) on the Dan Cofall show (1190 am, in DFW http://www.dancofallshow.com/ ) to talk about Homeland and National Security issues.  Here are the notes I provided Dan for possible topics of discussion this week. (click on the podcast button on Dan’s  web site to hear recordings of his shows.)

My top strategic priority this week is Russia. Nothing ISIS can do can imperil the survival of the US. Stumbling into a war with Russia can do that. 

Eastern Europe is Russia’s back yard. We went to war, overt and covert, when the Russians tried to establish military bases off our shores in Cuba, Grenada, and Nicaragua. In case you missed it, each of those was to be the site of a 10,000 ft runway that could accommodate fully loaded Backfire bombers. These locations would have allowed control of our oil shipping lanes across the Gulf of Mexico, and to/from our petrochemical complex stretching from Corpus Christi to Florida. Of course we were ready to fight to prevent that eventually.

Estonia, Poland, Bulgaria, Ukraine – this is the invasion route used to cost 20 million (or more) Russian lives in the last 100 years.  And we think they are just going to lie down and watch a hostile power put forces and airfields in place there? This shows astonishing arrogance and hubris on our part.

So the President is in Europe to write a blank check to East European countries, and to discuss establishing a new NATO reaction force of 4000 troops  (just enough to build themselves a good POW camp), and new bases.  So what will we put on those new bases?  Every jet we put at an airbase in Estonia is one jet we cannot move elsewhere in time of crisis.  Will we buy new forces, or simply spread our weak military even more thinly?

BTW – does everybody remember that WE STARTED THIS by covertly encouraging the toppling of a democratically elected head of government in the Ukraine? I am no fan of Russia or Putin. But neither do I think military posturing with mostly imaginary forces is likely to produce a positive outcome.

(See this link for Senator Sam Nunn's similar call for diplomacy in the Ukraine, and NATO military improvements to back up their bellicose language. ( http://www.nti.org/analysis/opinions/former-senator-sam-nunns-perspective-nato-summit-russia-ukraine/ )

Somalia

Here is a place where the President’s approach to the situation is paying off.  I just wish he would be a bit more aggressive in doing it.

The strike this week that attacked and killed an al-Shabaab commander (Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr) and some of his deputies was no fluke. It was a well-planned, long term effort to properly position forces, and then kill some especially nasty borderline human beings who threatened US personnel.

Before anyone gets bent out of shape about my slur – this group planned and executed the murder of 60+ innocents in a shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya. They picked this target because Kenya has worked with the US, the African Union, and other governments to retake cities, towns and the countryside previously conquered by murderous Islamic Radicals. The extended operation to get them has been a big success in President’s Obama’s policy of “Leading from Behind.”

To complete the thought – what al-Shabaad did to civilians, many of them European -- in the mall defies my ability to describe in an open blog. Read some European press reports to learn, for example, about the condition of the children’s bodies that were found in the freezers at the Food Court. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2434278/Kenya-mall-attack-torture-claims-emerge-soldiers-Eyes-gouged-bodies-hooks-fingers-removed.html ) Many specifics are unclear, but the central point is clear. As one friend who has been in this fight told me, “We are at war with cave men.”

Given the many previous statements and policy pronouncements from the White House, I have no doubt that the President personally issued the strike order. Good for him.  Good for the men and women who carried it out.

I also have no doubt that military, intel, and other assets have many more such sub-humans in their sights.  I wish the President would take a few more risks, and pull that trigger against very bad people more often.

From a global perspective . . .

For months now I have been telling the patient listeners of the Dan Cofall show that our entire approach to national security – to include our diplomatic, intelligence, informational, military, and economic elements of power – is based on academic theories about how to build a liberal (small “l”) world order.  Those theories have been taking shape (especially on the left) since the end of the First World War.  They were embraced by many on the right after the fall of the Iron Curtain. They formed part of the rationale for our invasion of Iraq.

And now they are all failing.  All of them. Financers and markets won’t behave the way theories predict. Neither will religious fanatics. Or conquered populations. Or opponents like Putin. Or Edward Snowden.  Or hackers, or illegal immigrants.

It is not just President Obama’s policies that are failing. It is the academic foundation on which they are built. Because the theories that underlie the modern concept of world order do not accurately account for the nature of man.

   And now somebody important is saying the same thing with greater legitimacy than I can provide. See this article by Henry Kissinger, writing in the Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/henry-kissinger-on-the-assembly-of-a-new-world-order-1409328075-lMyQjAxMTA0MDMwMTEzNDEyWj?tesla=y  . 

The end of a 100 year old intellectual order is a big, big deal . . . even if, like “the Walking Dead,” the elite do not yet understand that they are dead, and why.

People finally get it (especially Great Britain) concerning the threat that radical citizens will return from overseas with a jihadist vision and domestic targets in mind.

Since the afternoon of 9/11 the US government (in both the Bush and Obama administrations) has been scrambling to assure us that no single part of our population poses any greater threat than any other part.  Despite the fact that we have not seen a terrorist attack by a radical Catholic faction since . . . oh . . . EVER . . . the TSA  still searches nuns in habits with mind numbing regularity.

But following the rise of ISIS, the Prime Minister of Britain has just outlined how he plans to direct special focus against people who indicate a desire to travel overseas to train and fight, and those who actually do so.  It would be great to have our President, or Secretary of Homeland Security, or Attorney General address this issue.

This week I would really rather talk about Libya than ISIS. 

The Mideast did not begin to unravel when President Obama brought troops home from Iraq. It began to come apart when the US organized support to “lead from behind” in overthrowing Gadhafi in Libya – a brutal dictator who was non-the-less able to keep even more vicious forces under control. In the aftermath of our decisive support, instead of becoming an “Arab Spring” with a moderate democracy, Libya has been engulfed by radicals, lunatics and bandits. And the virus has spread to other countries. ISIS is just the latest such disaster.

Many news articles this week  address the anarchy that has developed there, to include the rise of some of the most extreme radical groups – armed with weapons we could not secure when our actions threw open the doors to Gadhafi’s military storehouses.

Note, for example, this article about the loss of several commercial airliners in the recent fighting. http://freebeacon.com/national-security/missing-libyan-jetliners-raise-fears-of-suicide-airliner-attacks-on-911/  I wonder where and when we will see them again.

And finally – saved for last, a story that rivals Russia as our #1 strategic focus this week . . .

The Washington Post has posted a disturbing story about the danger that Ebola will break out of the area in West Africa where it is presently contained.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/global-health-officials-warn-that-window-for-bringing-ebola-under-control-is-closing-fast/2014/09/02/5fd81d72-32b6-11e4-9e92-0899b306bbea_story.html?wpmk=MK0000203

The head of the US Centers for Disease Control is just back from seeing the situation first hand, and he is shocked at conditions and the danger the disease presents. The Washington Post article describes

“overwhelmed isolation centers, riots breaking out over controversial quarantines, infected bodies lying in the streets, medical workers dying in shocking numbers, entire health systems crumbling and Ebola wards with such scant resources that they are little more than where ‘people go to die alone.’ ”

This is the most alarmist report I have seen, coming from a paper with a reputation for measured language. To borrow from an earlier point, looks like our theories about the positive  benefits of globalization are about to be tested.

Domestic Terrorism – Words Matter

Sometimes the government is not as stupid as it seems.  It just seems to be as stupid as it seems.   A number of (mostly conservative – example http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/29/fbi-homeland-terror-assessment-omits-islamist-thre/ ) media sources have objected to the just released National Threat Assessment for Domestic Extremism because it does not list Muslim radicals as a threat. They are wrong. The omission is not as grave as it seems.

Domestic Terrorism is an act of terrorism conducted by a domestic resident over a domestic issue.  White separatists, Black Power advocates, animal rights extremists, some work place attackers -- all are domestic actors upset about purely domestic issues. This was the subject of the disputed report.

            International Terrorism is an act of terrorism by an international actor over an international issue. The 9/11 attackers were foreign nationals unhappy about US actions overseas.

            Homegrown Terrorism is an act of terrorism by a domestic resident over an international issue. The Boston Bombing was an act of Homegrown Terrorism. 

            So the FBI report is correct -- I do not know of any Muslim radicals or Muslim groups who are threatening to mount terrorist attacks in the US over purely domestic issues.

            Is there a reason to make such distinctions?  Yes.  If the motivations and capabilities are different, then the analysis and counter actions must be different. The Cosa Nostra’s deliberate murder of a judge, and an individual’s impulsive of murder a spouse are both murders, but should be approached quite differently.  The same is true of terrorism.

            Are the definitions really as clear as I have suggested?  No.  The Department of State  and Department of Justice are still using different definitions of terrorism in their programs, so it is no surprise that there is confusion even among experts.

            And by the way -- this distinction is going to get sticky in the near future.  What should we call the crime in England where a radical Muslim murdered a member of the British Army band in the street?  The attacker was a domestic resident. But was he motivated by unhappiness about Britain's involvement overseas, or the role of Muslims in British society at home?  That's not clear, maybe even to him. So was he a homegrown terrorist or domestic terrorist? 

            Here is one final question. It should have been clear to anyone who works these issues that the American press and the American people would be confused by the new report. Why not explain this distinction up front?

Great question.  I have no answer.  But this seems to be in the tradition of saying and doing things destined to alarm the public, then refusing to explain the action.  Like buying billions of rounds of hollow point ammunition, then claiming it is to protect post offices. Seems pretty stupid.  Maybe it's not. But it sure seems that way.

Pilot Error

Now that a few air strikes seem to have blunted the ISIS appetite for continuing the attack on refugees in Kurdistan, the even bigger problem emerges.

The refugees (in what numbers? reports range from 50,000 to 1+ million) cannot continue to live in the wilderness where they now squat.  There is no food, water or shelter. A representative from the Department of State said, “We are looking at every possible solution.” Truth is, there are really only four.

1) Avoid the problem. Get somebody else (Iraq, the Kurds, the French, anybody) to belly up to the problem, while the US "leads from behind."  Or more precisely, leads from Martha’s Vineyard.

2) Continue to supply the refugees by air where they are, indefinitely. This might be technically possible, but it is not really sustainable in the long run. Imagine moving 100,000 city-dwellers (complete with children, pregnant women, hospital patients, and their elderly) to a scorching desert mountain without any food, shelter or medicine. Now imagine supplying everything they need by air, when the nearest friendly runway is a five hour flight away.

3) Return them to their homes.  Perfect solution. Except it would require eliminating a hostile army, one pickup truck at a time, while that army mixes in with a civilian population.   This would require a ground offensive. And someone would have to do the actual fighting – suffer casualties against  the ISIS army and their US provided equipment, in order to regain somebody else’s homeland. Good luck with that. 

4) Evacuate the refugees to somewhere else.  Just finding and collecting the refugees  would be a massive operation – maybe 5000 aircraft sorties of many hours each, through hostile airspace. The logistical tail (fuel, maintenance, medical help, etc.)  would be enormous, as would the security umbrella.  And movement to where? Who would take perhaps as many as a quarter million refugees?

Breaking news reports suggest that US “State Department officials and USAID” are working to find such a location.

Hum-m-m-m-.  DOS and USAID.  I am reminded that the recent plan to send Department of State officials to Honduras to screen potential illegal immigrants was called a “pilot  program." The idea was to "pre-qualify" selected people as legal immigrants, and grant them access by Executive Order.  Once they were granted formal refugees status, they would be guaranteed admission.  And the US would help to transport them. 

What is a "pilot program?"  It is an experiment to sort out the kinks for a larger program later. 

            Well, now it is later.

Fire on the Mountain, Run Boys Run

“The Devil Went Down to Georgia.” Or maybe the Ukraine.

I am worried.  Really worried.  Here is what the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff just said:

“If I have a fear about this,” General Dempsey told the Aspen Security Forum over the weekend, “it’s that Putin may actually light a fire that he loses control of.”  

            I agree – this is a dangerous situation -- but for a different reason.  WE lit the fire and are stoking it. 

            Putin is a KGB thug. I wish him a short life and unhappy death.  But he did not create this crisis.  We did – over loans the Ukraine could not repay to Western banks. We engineered a removal of an elected president by a mob, and arranged to pay the bankers with money borrowed from the US and European governments. And in the process laid the groundwork for replacing Russian gas with US oil making some US companies very happy. AND we talked about pulling Ukraine into NATO, after we promised we would not, back when the USSR broke up.

Putin has not talked about marching into Europe or reestablishing the Soviet Union.  That has come from our officials, speculating about what he “might” do. 

Putin took the Crimea without a shot and from people who wanted to be incorporated. He secured the bases RUSSIA BUILT, and the ships RUSSIA PAID FOR.  The big mistake here was the US Dept of State (and western bankers) thinking Russia was too weak to respond.   Of course they did – we threatened a vital interest.

Our media reports Russia is firing artillery into the Ukraine.  If true, that means at targets 20 MILES FROM THEIR BORDER. Meanwhile, NATO  is talking about operations in the Ukraine, 700 miles from the old NATO borders. And about 5,000 miles from Washington, DC. Who sounds like the aggressor?

Two months ago the Ukrainian army could not find its helmet and both boots.  Now it is conducting a double envelopment of two Separatist cities by well supplied mechanized forces. The Ukrainian air force, which could not land in a cross wind, is providing precision close air support.  And the US CJCS is saying “an ‘active process’ is underway to determine what help the US could provide Ukraine.”  (See Dempsey link above.)

Last time we saw something like this it was in Croatia and coordinated by retired US military advisers, contracted by the US from MPRI  (a DC based body shop for military retires). When the going got tough later in Kosovo, the US effort was backed up by strikes from the USAF – all coordinated by former NATO Commander, US General Wesley Clark.

I suspect something similar is happening in the Ukraine.  Right on the Russian border.  Closer than the 90 miles that drove JFK to risk nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Oh yes – and the Dept of State is openly speculating that new sanctions might push the Russian rich guys to oust Putin – something Dick Cheney used to call regime change.  Wonder how Putin will react to that?

Again, I a no fan of Putin, and no supporter of Russia in world affairs.  But the first question any strategist should ask is, “If I pursue my current strategy, what will happen next?”

What do you think will happen if we back Putin and Russia into a corner, ultimately placing NATO troops right on their border, astride the invasion route the Nazis took on the way to Mother Russia?

Yeah -- somebody has definitely lit a fire that might burn out of control.  But I don’t think the arsonist was Vladimir Putin.