“Predicting anything is hard,” Yogi
Berra famously said, “Especially the future.” (Or maybe he didn’t say it – like
the future, who knows for sure?)
But here are some trends and
influences that are likely to be felt in 2013.
Others are less likely, but will have a huge influence if they do
occur.
First is the area of enemy activity.
International terrorists from overseas,
and “home grown” terrorists influenced and recruited domestically, continue to
pose a threat to our lives, property and critical infrastructure. Our primary defense is intelligence and
“direct action” against potential attackers – both at home and abroad. Expect
to see threats continue, and domestic intelligence efforts and integration
continue to expand. The major question is whether Congressional oversight
will improve and expand as well. I would not bet on it.
On a larger scale, homeland security
exists because of the development of weapons of mass destruction. The most
vicious terrorist in the world armed with a small weapon is a matter of public
safety, not domestic security. (Assassinations excepted of course, but the FBI
and Secret Service handle that concern very well without the help of DHS.) So
WMD really matters.
·
Chemical weapons are dangerous
but generally only in a localized area. (For example, a persistent nerve agent
in a subway or office building might kill many and contaminate the facility for
weeks or months.)
·
Radiological
weapons
could be locally disruptive (and locally expensive), but the world (and
security forces) would quickly learn to adjust. The ability to govern (the
crown jewel for homeland security) would not be threatened.
·
Nuclear weapons could change
history, reversing the long standing flow of people into cities. They could be
delivered surreptitiously by truck making attribution hard. And despite
admirable efforts to control the nuclear material loose in the world (the
private Nuclear Threat Initiative, or NTI, gets special credit here),
irresponsible states (North Korea,
Pakistan, Iran) are developing more weapons daily. Unfortunately, homeland
security officials treat this threat like a strong hurricane in the NY-NJ area
– dangerous but so unlikely that they spend little time on preparedness or
response.
·
The
situation with bio-weapons is even
worse. Scientists and academics have blocked efforts to curtail the worldwide
spread of both the knowledge and technology required to prepare devastating
organisms. A major disaster could be brewed almost anywhere in a good high
school chemistry lab. And despite years of effort and billions of dollars of
investment, solutions remain elusive.
·
The
one WMD area where we have seen some progress – at least with senior officials
acknowledging the problem – is in cyber
security. There is no question that the danger from hostile states,
non-state enemies, transnational criminals, insiders, and malicious individuals
far outstrips our defenses. The Secretary of Defense has warned of a “Cyber
Pearl Harbor.” The central questions
for 2013 are “Who is in charge nationally, and what are they doing?” The
central problem is that everyone
working on this issue has tightened their grip on information, so it is
impossible to know our national status, vulnerability or progress.
The bottom line is that the world
remains a dangerous place, WMD remains at the top of the list of dangers, and
as we enter 2013, both our preparedness for and response to a WMD event remain in doubt.
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